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Khamenei’s 1394 Nowruz Speech in Mashhad: Preparing Iranians for a nuclear agreement?

March 25, 2015 in Analysis, News

In his annual new year’s address to Iranians from the city of Mashhad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the Hassan Rouhani administration as being both lawful and legitimate. At the same time, he appeared to strike back at Barack Obama’s Nowruz message to Iranians, in which the American president touted the economic benefits of a nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and an Iran which is open to the world. Is Khamenei preparing Iranian elites and people for an agreement, while trying to maintain the status-quo in other key areas of domestic politics and foreign policy? Preparing Iranian audiences for a nuclear agreement? On 21 March 2015, […]

Iranian workers and the 1394 minimum wage: One step forward?

March 18, 2015 in Analysis, News

During the annual negotiations to set Iran’s average minimum wage, Iranian workers won a raise of 17 percent. While this is one of the biggest steps forward in recent years for the country’s struggling workers, this small victory comes amidst a larger context of economic decline and political under-representation. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s trilateral commission responsible for managing the minimum wage, composed of representatives of the government, employers, and workers, met on 14-15 March 2015. They decided to set the minimum wage at 7,124,240 rial/month for the 1394 (2015-2016) calendar year, a 17 percent rise over last year’s minimum wage which Minister of Labour Ali Rabi’i called […]

Assembly of Experts win for Yazdi reaffirms conservative control of key Iranian political body

March 14, 2015 in Analysis, News

In the recent race for the leadership of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi handily defeated his rival Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. This was a clear victory for Iranian conservatives, which may ripple out to affect other aspects of Iranian politics. On 10 March 2015, Iran’s Assembly of Experts held a leadership race to select its next general secretary. As we noted earlier, the outcome of leadership race is indicative of the existing balance of power in the Assembly, an elected body responsible for selecting, monitoring, and removing the supreme leader. It has 86 members, who serve for eight years, all of whom are faghih (Shi’a jurists) educated […]

Iran’s top leaders increasingly aware of stark environmental future facing the country

March 11, 2015 in Analysis, News

As Iran’s environmental situation deteriorates, the Islamic Republic’s political leadership has started to frame the environment as a major policy and even national security issue. In recent years the environment in Iran has begun to deteriorate to an unprecedented degree, in line with trend seen elsewhere in the Middle East and broader global south. Severe air-pollution in Tehran and other major urban areas; out of control dust storms in Ahvaz and Khuzestan province; the drying-out of lake Urmia, among other bodies of water in the country. Hardly anyone has been able to escape the effects of environmental degradation, and there is increasing mobilisation around this issue. Of course, […]

Ban on media coverage of ex-president Khatami highlights ongoing tensions in Iran

March 3, 2015 in Analysis, News

The judiciary’s ban on media coverage of Khatami, a former president of the Islamic Republic, is only the latest episode which highlights the ‘great divide’ in Iran. On 16 January 2015, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the current prosecutor general and a former intelligence minister under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stated in a press conference that Iran’s judiciary had issued an order to ban the publication of the name and image of the head of the reformist administration, by which he meant Mohammad Khatami: “And about those who the Supreme National Security Council has decided or the judiciary considers them to be among the leaders of the sedition [Iranian conservatives term for the […]

Hashemi-Rafsanjani tries to stir public interest in 2016 Assembly of Experts elections

February 22, 2015 in Analysis, News

The Assembly of Expert (AoE) has not historically been a majour center for political contestation in Iran. This may be changing as questions about the country’s next supreme leader emerge and some in the regime try to generate public interest in the upcoming 2016 AoE election. Introduction The Assembly of Experts in Iran’s political system is an elected body responsible for selecting, monitoring, and removing the supreme leader. It has 86 members, who serve for eight years (unlike the four year election cycles for the presidency, parliament, and city and village councils), all of whom are faghih or Shi’a jurists educated in religious seminaries and practicing Islamic jurisprudence. […]

Iran Expediency Council policy bans participation of security forces in elections

February 17, 2015 in Ayatollah's Praetorians, News

On Saturday 14 February the Expediency Discernment Council, an appointed body which has supervisory authority over the branches of Iran’s government and an advisory role to the supreme leader, met to discuss and approve general election policies. Those in attendance included the council’s head, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, President Hassan Rouhani, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Minister of the Interior Abdol-Reza Rahmani-Fazli, Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi, and Minister of Justice Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, among others. The outcome of the session included general points on improving elections which were largely unremarkable, except perhaps for the final article which called for the: “Banning Armed Forces personnel, including Army, IRGC, Police, and […]

Khamenei and Obama spar over sequencing of nuclear negotiations

February 10, 2015 in News, Nuclear File

Iran’s supreme leader has criticised the division of the final round of P5+1-Iran nuclear negotiations into a two phases, the first of which will seek a general political agreement (ending in March), and a second which will seek a technical and implementation agreement (ending in June). Does he smell a sanctions trap? Introduction During a speech to Army Air Force officers on 08 February 2015 on the occasion of Air Force Day, which celebrates the anniversary of the 1979 uprising of Air Force Homafaran officers who helped precipitate the collapse of the Iranian monarchy, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made interesting and rare detailed remarks on the progress of P5+1-Iran nuclear […]

The IRGC’s “Operation Spider” strikes at alleged cyber-criminals

February 4, 2015 in Analysis, News

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has cast a wide-net in its fight against cyber-crime, going after individuals with social media pages for alleged cultural misdeeds. Yet in the Islamic Republic’s war against what it sees as anti-Iranian-Islamic activities, the regime may be fighting a losing battle. On Saturday 30 January 2015, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Center for Investigation of Organised Cyber Crimes put out a press-release about a recent operation on social networks, namely Facebook. According to the press release, the IRGC was able to “identify and arrest some of the most important elements and active social networks on the Internet who have a mission to […]

Shoigu in Tehran: Prospects for Russia-Iran Defense Cooperation in 2015

January 24, 2015 in Analysis, News

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s recent visit to Tehran was carefully observed by leaders in Washington and E.U. capitals. The mutual challenges of the Syrian civil war, Western economic sanctions, and a precipitous drop in oil prices have brought Russia and Iran closer together than at nearly any point in recent memory. Yet will potential translate to an actual improvement in relations and expansion of cooperation, especially in the defense field? The IranPolitik editorial team join with guest contributor Anton Evstratov to discuss Shoigu’s visit to Tehran and the prospects for greater Russia-Iran defense cooperation in 2015. On 12 January 2014, guest contributor Anton Evstratov discussed the possibility […]