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Iran Election Watch 2013: Could Hashemi-Rafsanjani be disqualified from running by the Council of Guardians?

May 21, 2013 in Iran Election Watch, News

Since former President Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani entered the 2013 Iranian presidential election, many have debated the significance of this move. One must be skeptical of his chances of winning if he is allowed to participate in the election and his ability to rule if he is elected. But could he be disqualified, even before the formal campaign has begun? To some it may seem that the chances of an elder statesman like Hashemi-Rafsanjani being disqualified by the Council of Guardians from running in the 2013 election is remote. Yet rumblings by hardliners over the last several days should give observers reason for doubt. Their lines of attack have [...]

Iran Election Watch 2013: Ghalibaf’s schizophrenic electioneering

May 17, 2013 in Iran Election Watch, News

2013 Iranian presidential election candidate-registrant Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf has tried to steer a course between hardliners and moderates. Ghalibaf recognizes that there are two potential source of power that he can appeal to if he is to have a chance at winning the presidency: The Islamic Republic’s hardline political establishment which includes Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on one hand and moderate Iranian voters on the other. We here at IranPolitik contend that at least since the 2009 Iranian presidential election, if not earlier, the hardline establishment has been a more important source of power. Regardless, by navigating a steady course between [...]

Iran Election Watch 2013: Ahmadinejad’s dangerous game of chicken with the the Islamic Republic and why he does and does not matter

April 24, 2013 in Iran Election Watch, News

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s game of chicken with hardliners As the 2013 Iranian presidential election campaign heats up the question of what role President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his ally Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei will play has become a topic of increasing media scrutiny both inside and outside Iran. Many believe that Ahamdinejad’s ongoing provincial tours, among his myriad of other recent actions, are intended to mobilize support for Mashaei in the upcoming 14 June vote. Neo-Principalists, the hardline elements of the Islamic Republic, have however labeled Mashaei and his supporters the “deviant current” and threatened to confront them should they make a bid for the election. Addressing his and Mashaei’s detractors [...]

Israel’s apology to Turkey: An anti-Iranian alliance and sign of a “new Cold War”?

March 25, 2013 in Analysis, News

By Adnan Riza Güzel Last week Tehran received what is likely to have been one of the worst pieces of news so far this year from Ankara and Tel Aviv. Three years ago Turkey had minimised its diplomatic contact with Israel, after the Gaza flotilla raid in which Israeli soldiers killed Turkish activists in international waters trying to transport humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. Now however the two rivals of the Islamic Republic have resolved their dispute with American mediation during President Barack Obama’s recent visit, pushing Tehran in a more precarious situation with its erstwhile foe, Israel, and emerging strategic rival in the Levant, Turkey. Ankara’s apprehension [...]

Iran Election Watch 2013: Twenty four presidential candidates emerge

March 17, 2013 in Iran Election Watch, News

INTRODUCTION The 2013 Iranian presidential election began in earnest this February with the emergence of the first candidates. A recent Fars News Agency report from mid-March now gives us our first look at this election cycle’s crop of candidates, 24 in all, competing to becoming Iran’s next president. Although the actual field of candidates is wider, the Fars News list gives us a good idea of candidates who are actually considered to be within the Islamic Republic’s political establishment and may have a chance of participating. Candidates such as expatriate Professor Houshang Amirahmadi, who has recently gained international attention for announcing his candidacy for the election, have a [...]

IRGC increasingly more open regarding its political nature

February 15, 2013 in News

One of IranPolitik’s main interests is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its role as a political actor in the Islamic Republic. Since at least 1999 they have intervened in Iranian politics, and are now assuming a position at the pinnacle of power. One of the central figures elucidating the organization’s political preferences has been Ali Saeedi, the supreme leader’s representative to the IRGC. Saeedi, among others, has been making a serious effort to do this in part because of a phenomenon known as “Sepah-Harrasi” or “IRGC-phopia” inside and outside Iran. This has made the IRGC sensitive to accusations that it has been getting involved in partisan [...]

Understanding Khamenei’s “rejection” of nuclear negotiations with the United States

February 10, 2013 in News

Since President Barack Obama’s November 2012 electoral victory, a number of U.S. foreign policy and Iran analysts have argued that the best time for negotiations between the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany) and Iran is between the start of the Obama administration’s second term and the June 2013 Iranian presidential election. This notion may have been proven wrong by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s response to Vice President Joseph Biden’s offer of bilateral negotiations recently, but probably not for the reasons many think. Speaking at the recent Munich Security Conference, Vice President Biden asserted that the United States had: “…made [...]

Larijani-gate: The Islamic Republic’s bitter political infighting explodes in tragicomedy manner

February 6, 2013 in News

On 3 February 2013, one of the most spectacular political events in the Islamic Republic’s 34 year history took place on the floor of the Iranian parliament, the Majlis. For the third time in the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad administration’s tenure, the Majlis impeached a sitting Cabinet-level minister as a direct political attack against the outgoing president. In response, Ahmadinejad played segments of a video where parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani’s younger brother was asking one of the president’s subordinates, the notorious former senior judiciary official Saeed Mortazavi, to engage in corruption. Soon after the Judiciary, headed by the parliamentary speaker’s older brother Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani, arrested Mortazavi. On the tarmac [...]

Could economic turmoil lead to a new protest movement in Iran? General Nasser Sha’bani certainly thinks so.

January 17, 2013 in News

A recent interview by the website Ghanoon with General Nasser Sha’bani, professor and deputy chief of Imam Hossein University which trains Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers, on 14 January may have revealed much about the Islamic Republic’s senior hardline military and political leadership’s thinking. Sha’bani touched on both domestic and foreign policy issues, outlined below. Domestic politics General Sha’bani, who is a senior IRGC commander, began the interview by discussing the deviant current, the regime’s terminology for the Ahmadinejad-Mashaei current. Shabani expressed the IRGC’s disappointment about president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whom the Guard had backed fully during his first term (2005-2009) in office but began to doubt during [...]

Iran Cyber Front: Khamenei likes Facebook

December 28, 2012 in News

On 13 December 2013, the official website of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Center for Preserving and Publishing the Works of Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, created a community page on Facebook. This has caused quite a stir in the Western media, which took great interest in this action given the Islamic Republic of Iran’s animosity toward Western online social networks. However, this was not the Iranian supreme leader’s first foray into cyberspace or social networks. Alongside the official website, which is regularly updated and available in 13 languages, Khamenei.ir appears to also maintain a Twitter and Instagram page; in fact the confirmation of the official [...]