• Could Hashemi-Rafsanjani face another political battle, this time over his son’s fate?

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    Published April 23, 2015 at 2:27 am - No Comments With his son Mehdi Hashemi possibly facing 15 years in prison, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, once among Iran’s foremost political figures, continues his political descent, coming under attack by the heads of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and judiciary. In a speech on 12 April 2015, Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani mocked those in Iran who he said believed that all misery derived from “a few women on the streets with bad hejab”. While observing that women indeed “must have the minimum of Islamic hejab”, he asked rhetorically: “But the issue is: what about the other issues? What about oppression? What about unjust prisons? What […]

    Could Hashemi-Rafsanjani face another political battle, this time over his son’s fate?
  • New challenges to Russia and Iran’s partnership in Syria

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    Published April 18, 2015 at 4:29 am - No Comments By guest contributor Anton Evstratov The Syrian civil war is one of the most dangerous conflicts in the world today. There are many political players who over time have become involved on this conflagration. While the Bashar al-Assad regime continues fighting Salafi extremists, it is unclear how long it can continue the fight against these extremists as well as the other forces supported by U.S. allies in the Middle East. It’s ability to continue fighting is sustained by the help and protection of its main allies Iran and Russia, who competing interests in this conflict. Why is Syria so important to Moscow and Tehran, despite not being adjacent […]

    New challenges to Russia and Iran’s partnership in Syria
  • Iran’s conservative consensus on the nuclear deal

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    Published April 15, 2015 at 7:29 pm - No Comments IranPolitik co-founder and managing editor Farzan Sabet has written a new article in the Washington Post Monkey Cage political science blog as part of their “Iran and the Nuclear Deal” symposium. “Explanations of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s decision to come to the negotiation table and conclude a nuclear deal often emphasize the will of Iranian voters and the election of Hassan Rouhani as president. These explanations ignore two equally important factors behind both Rouhani’s election and the decision to negotiate: Disunity among Iranian conservatives and intra-factional consensus politics in Iran. Understanding these factors is crucial to making sense of Iran’s decision to negotiate and evaluating claims about […]

    Iran’s conservative consensus on the nuclear deal
  • Analysis: The Joint Statement by the EU’s Mogherini & Iran’s Zarif

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    Published April 3, 2015 at 6:51 pm - No Comments Disclaimer: The following analysis is based on the text of the Joint Statement by EU High Representative Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. The latter’s comments to journalists after joint statement press conference, Iran’s press-release, the U.S. fact-sheet, and subsequent speeches by U.S. leaders potentially diverge somewhat on questions like economic sanctions relief. As the joint statement appears to be the only commonly agreed upon framework, we have limited our initial analysis to this text at present. Introduction Today the United Nations Security Council permanent five plus Germany (P5+1) and the Islamic Republic of Iran concluded a political framework agreement, which they are calling the Joint […]

    Analysis: The Joint Statement by the EU’s Mogherini & Iran’s Zarif
  • Khamenei’s 1394 Nowruz Speech in Mashhad: Preparing Iranians for a nuclear agreement?

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    Published March 25, 2015 at 10:13 pm - One Comment In his annual new year’s address to Iranians from the city of Mashhad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the Hassan Rouhani administration as being both lawful and legitimate. At the same time, he appeared to strike back at Barack Obama’s Nowruz message to Iranians, in which the American president touted the economic benefits of a nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and an Iran which is open to the world. Is Khamenei preparing Iranian elites and people for an agreement, while trying to maintain the status-quo in other key areas of domestic politics and foreign policy? Preparing Iranian audiences for a nuclear agreement? On 21 March 2015, […]

    Khamenei’s 1394 Nowruz Speech in Mashhad: Preparing Iranians for a nuclear agreement?
  • Assembly of Experts win for Yazdi reaffirms conservative control of key Iranian political body

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    Published March 14, 2015 at 4:17 am - No Comments In the recent race for the leadership of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi handily defeated his rival Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. This was a clear victory for Iranian conservatives, which may ripple out to affect other aspects of Iranian politics. On 10 March 2015, Iran’s Assembly of Experts held a leadership race to select its next general secretary. As we noted earlier, the outcome of leadership race is indicative of the existing balance of power in the Assembly, an elected body responsible for selecting, monitoring, and removing the supreme leader. It has 86 members, who serve for eight years, all of whom are faghih (Shi’a jurists) educated […]

    Assembly of Experts win for Yazdi reaffirms conservative control of key Iranian political body
  • Ban on media coverage of ex-president Khatami highlights ongoing tensions in Iran

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    Published March 3, 2015 at 5:57 am - No Comments The judiciary’s ban on media coverage of Khatami, a former president of the Islamic Republic, is only the latest episode which highlights the ‘great divide’ in Iran. On 16 January 2015, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the current prosecutor general and a former intelligence minister under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stated in a press conference that Iran’s judiciary had issued an order to ban the publication of the name and image of the head of the reformist administration, by which he meant Mohammad Khatami: “And about those who the Supreme National Security Council has decided or the judiciary considers them to be among the leaders of the sedition [Iranian conservatives term for the […]

    Ban on media coverage of ex-president Khatami highlights ongoing tensions in Iran
  • Iran Expediency Council policy bans participation of security forces in elections

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    Published February 17, 2015 at 4:42 am - No Comments On Saturday 14 February the Expediency Discernment Council, an appointed body which has supervisory authority over the branches of Iran’s government and an advisory role to the supreme leader, met to discuss and approve general election policies. Those in attendance included the council’s head, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, President Hassan Rouhani, Speaker of Parliament Ali Larijani, Minister of the Interior Abdol-Reza Rahmani-Fazli, Minister of Intelligence Mahmoud Alavi, and Minister of Justice Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi, among others. The outcome of the session included general points on improving elections which were largely unremarkable, except perhaps for the final article which called for the: “Banning Armed Forces personnel, including Army, IRGC, Police, and […]

    Iran Expediency Council policy bans participation of security forces in elections
  • Khamenei and Obama spar over sequencing of nuclear negotiations

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    Published February 10, 2015 at 11:45 pm - No Comments Iran’s supreme leader has criticised the division of the final round of P5+1-Iran nuclear negotiations into a two phases, the first of which will seek a general political agreement (ending in March), and a second which will seek a technical and implementation agreement (ending in June). Does he smell a sanctions trap? Introduction During a speech to Army Air Force officers on 08 February 2015 on the occasion of Air Force Day, which celebrates the anniversary of the 1979 uprising of Air Force Homafaran officers who helped precipitate the collapse of the Iranian monarchy, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made interesting and rare detailed remarks on the progress of P5+1-Iran nuclear […]

    Khamenei and Obama spar over sequencing of nuclear negotiations
  • Oil price crash: A “second sanction” on Iran

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    Published January 17, 2015 at 5:44 am - No Comments Senior Iranian leaders are increasingly pessimistic about their country’s immediate economic future, and have lashed out against Persian Gulf crude oil producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait for an alleged price conspiracy against Iran. But will economic pain be enough to convince Iran to make the necessary nuclear concessions to move negotiations with the P5+1 toward a successful conclusion? Grim economic outlook For Iran’s usually defiant leaders, recent economic news has injected a harsh dose of reality about the country’s economic situation and raised questions about how well Iran will fare if negotiations with the P5+1 – the five permanent members of the United […]

    Oil price crash: A “second sanction” on Iran

Could Hashemi-Rafsanjani face another political battle, this time over his son’s fate?

April 23, 2015 in Analysis, News

With his son Mehdi Hashemi possibly facing 15 years in prison, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, once among Iran’s foremost political figures, continues his political descent, coming under attack by the heads of Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and judiciary. In a speech on 12 April 2015, Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani mocked those in Iran who he said believed that all misery derived from “a few women on the streets with bad hejab”. While observing that women indeed “must have the minimum of Islamic hejab”, he asked rhetorically: “But the issue is: what about the other issues? What about oppression? What about unjust prisons? What […]

New challenges to Russia and Iran’s partnership in Syria

April 18, 2015 in Analysis, Syrian Front

By guest contributor Anton Evstratov The Syrian civil war is one of the most dangerous conflicts in the world today. There are many political players who over time have become involved on this conflagration. While the Bashar al-Assad regime continues fighting Salafi extremists, it is unclear how long it can continue the fight against these extremists as well as the other forces supported by U.S. allies in the Middle East. It’s ability to continue fighting is sustained by the help and protection of its main allies Iran and Russia, who competing interests in this conflict. Why is Syria so important to Moscow and Tehran, despite not being adjacent […]

Iran’s conservative consensus on the nuclear deal

April 15, 2015 in Analysis, Announcements

IranPolitik co-founder and managing editor Farzan Sabet has written a new article in the Washington Post Monkey Cage political science blog as part of their “Iran and the Nuclear Deal” symposium. “Explanations of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s decision to come to the negotiation table and conclude a nuclear deal often emphasize the will of Iranian voters and the election of Hassan Rouhani as president. These explanations ignore two equally important factors behind both Rouhani’s election and the decision to negotiate: Disunity among Iranian conservatives and intra-factional consensus politics in Iran. Understanding these factors is crucial to making sense of Iran’s decision to negotiate and evaluating claims about […]

Analysis: The Joint Statement by the EU’s Mogherini & Iran’s Zarif

April 3, 2015 in Analysis, Nuclear File

Disclaimer: The following analysis is based on the text of the Joint Statement by EU High Representative Federica Mogherini and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. The latter’s comments to journalists after joint statement press conference, Iran’s press-release, the U.S. fact-sheet, and subsequent speeches by U.S. leaders potentially diverge somewhat on questions like economic sanctions relief. As the joint statement appears to be the only commonly agreed upon framework, we have limited our initial analysis to this text at present. Introduction Today the United Nations Security Council permanent five plus Germany (P5+1) and the Islamic Republic of Iran concluded a political framework agreement, which they are calling the Joint […]

Khamenei’s 1394 Nowruz Speech in Mashhad: Preparing Iranians for a nuclear agreement?

March 25, 2015 in Analysis, News

In his annual new year’s address to Iranians from the city of Mashhad, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei defended the Hassan Rouhani administration as being both lawful and legitimate. At the same time, he appeared to strike back at Barack Obama’s Nowruz message to Iranians, in which the American president touted the economic benefits of a nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and an Iran which is open to the world. Is Khamenei preparing Iranian elites and people for an agreement, while trying to maintain the status-quo in other key areas of domestic politics and foreign policy? Preparing Iranian audiences for a nuclear agreement? On 21 March 2015, […]

Iranian workers and the 1394 minimum wage: One step forward?

March 18, 2015 in Analysis, News

During the annual negotiations to set Iran’s average minimum wage, Iranian workers won a raise of 17 percent. While this is one of the biggest steps forward in recent years for the country’s struggling workers, this small victory comes amidst a larger context of economic decline and political under-representation. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s trilateral commission responsible for managing the minimum wage, composed of representatives of the government, employers, and workers, met on 14-15 March 2015. They decided to set the minimum wage at 7,124,240 rial/month for the 1394 (2015-2016) calendar year, a 17 percent rise over last year’s minimum wage which Minister of Labour Ali Rabi’i called […]

Assembly of Experts win for Yazdi reaffirms conservative control of key Iranian political body

March 14, 2015 in Analysis, News

In the recent race for the leadership of Iran’s Assembly of Experts, Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi handily defeated his rival Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani. This was a clear victory for Iranian conservatives, which may ripple out to affect other aspects of Iranian politics. On 10 March 2015, Iran’s Assembly of Experts held a leadership race to select its next general secretary. As we noted earlier, the outcome of leadership race is indicative of the existing balance of power in the Assembly, an elected body responsible for selecting, monitoring, and removing the supreme leader. It has 86 members, who serve for eight years, all of whom are faghih (Shi’a jurists) educated […]

Iran’s top leaders increasingly aware of stark environmental future facing the country

March 11, 2015 in Analysis, News

As Iran’s environmental situation deteriorates, the Islamic Republic’s political leadership has started to frame the environment as a major policy and even national security issue. In recent years the environment in Iran has begun to deteriorate to an unprecedented degree, in line with trend seen elsewhere in the Middle East and broader global south. Severe air-pollution in Tehran and other major urban areas; out of control dust storms in Ahvaz and Khuzestan province; the drying-out of lake Urmia, among other bodies of water in the country. Hardly anyone has been able to escape the effects of environmental degradation, and there is increasing mobilisation around this issue. Of course, […]

Ban on media coverage of ex-president Khatami highlights ongoing tensions in Iran

March 3, 2015 in Analysis, News

The judiciary’s ban on media coverage of Khatami, a former president of the Islamic Republic, is only the latest episode which highlights the ‘great divide’ in Iran. On 16 January 2015, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, the current prosecutor general and a former intelligence minister under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, stated in a press conference that Iran’s judiciary had issued an order to ban the publication of the name and image of the head of the reformist administration, by which he meant Mohammad Khatami: “And about those who the Supreme National Security Council has decided or the judiciary considers them to be among the leaders of the sedition [Iranian conservatives term for the […]

Hashemi-Rafsanjani tries to stir public interest in 2016 Assembly of Experts elections

February 22, 2015 in Analysis, News

The Assembly of Expert (AoE) has not historically been a majour center for political contestation in Iran. This may be changing as questions about the country’s next supreme leader emerge and some in the regime try to generate public interest in the upcoming 2016 AoE election. Introduction The Assembly of Experts in Iran’s political system is an elected body responsible for selecting, monitoring, and removing the supreme leader. It has 86 members, who serve for eight years (unlike the four year election cycles for the presidency, parliament, and city and village councils), all of whom are faghih or Shi’a jurists educated in religious seminaries and practicing Islamic jurisprudence. […]